Toribash
I do believe in Alien Civilization, they might exist in many parts of the universe. The Universe is just way too massive and not even a speed of light could bring you to another Galaxy unless we could find way to unlock immortality and infinite energy. Hence in Alien life perspective there are low chances imo for them to meet us, Because we are limited in only our Galaxy. 100,000,000 habitable planet could not be enough. Chances are these planets rarely creates a intelligent species like us, maybe some of them exist but wiped out because of any catastrophic events. Maybe we could meet them one day.
Originally Posted by Divine View Post
~snip

The drake equation, which attempts to take all these factors into consideration, predicts anywhere from a few dozen alien civiliations in our galaxy to a few million, depending on how you determine the factors working against or for life. It remains however, that even if life is astronomically rare, we mustn't rule out the possibility of other Civilzations out there.

Despite that, depending on how pessimistic you are, you would be very justified to argue against any advanced aliens in our galaxy, and I think at this point no serious Astrobiologist expects us to find an advanced alien civilization next door.

But I don't think this makes the whole conversation a moot point. What we think of the likelyhood of alien civilzations can tell us alot about our own place in the Galaxy, and theorycrafting about why we may or may not be able to find said civilizations can also teach us alot.
I'm not necessarily pessimistic that other life exist but the 'well statistically theres gotta be aliens' argument annoys me because it makes assumptions on incomplete info.

The drake equation is kind of fun, but it's really just a bunch of values that you can set to any number you want to get whatever outcome you want.

Discussion's like this can be interesting but they often devolve into psuedoscientific reasoning. All current evidence for the 'are there aliens?' question points to no. This isn't because we have looked long and hard and haven't found any, we just aren't far enough along to make any meaningful assumptions or observations so no is the default.

Need help? PM me!
إد هو العاهرة
Originally Posted by Divine View Post
I'm not necessarily pessimistic that other life exist but the 'well statistically theres gotta be aliens' argument annoys me because it makes assumptions on incomplete info.

The thing is because we lack observational evidence and probably will never get any, relying on statistics and mathematical models is all we can do. The power of these models should not be underestimated either, as many things that first started out as a statistical or mathematical model were later confirmed via direct/indirect observational evidence. Prime example is the existance of black holes.

Originally Posted by Divine View Post
The drake equation is kind of fun, but it's really just a bunch of values that you can set to any number you want to get whatever outcome you want.

The values are by no means "any number", the factors are based on our best understanding of how the universe works, the uncertainty lies mostly in the unpredictability of alien civilizations, should they arise, because they are alien to us.

Originally Posted by Divine View Post
Discussion's like this can be interesting but they often devolve into psuedoscientific reasoning. All current evidence for the 'are there aliens?' question points to no. This isn't because we have looked long and hard and haven't found any, we just aren't far enough along to make any meaningful assumptions or observations so no is the default.

You're right, all current evidence points us towards the fact that we are the only civilization in our observable universe. I was not trying to argue specifically for the existence of aliens but rather i was interested to hear what people think personally.

I also don't really agree on your statement about us not being far enough along to make meaninging assumptions: We have a pretty good grasp of how Stars and planets work, what kind of stars could support life as we know, etc. Since it's our only reference point, looking in the places where we'd feel the most comfortable may be a self centered approach but the only one available to us.

There is a huge degree of uncertainty, of course I'm not denying that, but there is certainly enough science to make informed assumptions (like the drake equation)

Also thanks everyone for posting your opinions. I'm kinda glad I'm not the only one interested in stuff like this
The real question right now is how does life form, what is the minimum requirement for a single celled entity to form? Then maybe, we can truly start analysis. Because until then, we don't know what conditions need to be present for life to form.

Originally Posted by Chirs View Post
The thing is because we lack observational evidence and probably will never get any

I don't understand why we'd never get any observational evidence. There are plenty of ways to get observational evidence from going to other planets, analyzing atmospheric composition, receiving a signal, observing a structure an alien has made, exploring our origin. I think we can get there, we can even get there relatively soon because technological advance is an exponential curve, but we aren't there yet.

Originally Posted by Chirs View Post
The power of these models should not be underestimated either, as many things that first started out as a statistical or mathematical model were later confirmed via direct/indirect observational evidence. Prime example is the existance of black holes.

Einstein's General Relativity isn't the same as a model used to predict the likely hood of extraterrestrial life. We think black holes are exist because his theory makes MANY other testable predictions which have held up so far, but there's also a grey area because neither General or Special Relativity works in quantum systems.


Originally Posted by Chirs View Post
The values are by no means "any number", the factors are based on our best understanding of how the universe works

R x Fp x Ne x F1 x Fi x Fc x L

R: can be know but has a decently broad range at the moment
Fp: we have no idea, put your best guess
Ne: we have not a single clue, not even close to a hunch, put whatever you want
And every other variable has to be derived from Ne, so if you want to make a calculation with the drake equation, you need to put in what are essentially random numbers from Ne onward


Originally Posted by Chirs View Post
I also don't really agree on your statement about us not being far enough along to make meaninging assumptions: We have a pretty good grasp of how Stars and planets work, what kind of stars could support life as we know

We know our star and our planet can support life but we don't know if it can develop life from nothing. Maybe we came in on an asteroid, maybe we were placed here by a creator.

Need help? PM me!
إد هو العاهرة
42 years ago NASA sent a Voyager probe into space with basic information about our solar system, our planet and our species, in case some foreign civilization found it.
I hope that one day some civilization will find this data plate and we will still exist to this time.

I'm also imagining a black script:
300,000 A.D.
The humans killed each other a long time ago.
The only thing left of us is a gold plate with our data.
Random uneducated aliens find a gold plate with data and read it.
- Do you understand any of this?
- No
- I think it was written by some illiterate man.
- Yeah, you're right, let's trade it for a case of beer at a nearby junkyard.
~The end of the human race~
Last edited by Bison; Apr 10, 2019 at 10:33 PM.
hurh hurh hurh *chews grass*
Considering the size of the universe. There's >0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 1% of a chance that there are not other life forms out there.
If you're reading this, you just failed...
Originally Posted by Divine View Post



This argument is flawed in that 1. There's no reason to believe or evidence to suggest there is an infinite amount of matter within the universe. 2. If "infinite" is just an analogy for some big number then the statistical argument is still flawed because we don't know how rare life is. Life could be more rare than there are planets in the universe, we don't know.


1-as you said, "infinite" is just an analogy and that is how i am using it.
2-i never said anything about it being rare or common but the possiblity of life on our galaxy alone is very high, but well untill we reach enough tech advancement nothing can be confirmed.

man, imagine if we find species that have their own adjustable gravitational field that let them controle some particles at will like magic. that would be really cool, or disasturous who knows.
Aadame:I'm very signaturable
It's just no one usues my shit .
Originally Posted by Alpha View Post
i never said anything about it being rare or common but the possiblity of life on our galaxy alone is very high

"The possibility is very high", aka it is likely there are aliens besides us in our galaxy, aka the rarity of alien life on average is at least two inhabited planets a galaxy. That is what you've implied regardless of whether or not you meant to.
You didn't directly say "aliens are common" but you implied a minimum baseline of two inhabited planets per Galaxy, given the galaxy is at least as large as the Milky Way. So I repeat myself
Originally Posted by Divine View Post
the statistical argument is still flawed because we don't know how rare life is. Life could be more rare than there are planets in the universe

Originally Posted by Alpha View Post
man, imagine if we find species that have their own adjustable gravitational field that let them controle some particles at will like magic. that would be really cool, or disasturous who knows.

what

Need help? PM me!
إد هو العاهرة
Originally Posted by Divine View Post
"The possibility is very high", aka it is likely there are aliens besides us in our galaxy, aka the rarity of alien life on average is at least two inhabited planets a galaxy. That is what you've implied regardless of whether or not you meant to.
You didn't directly say "aliens are common" but you implied a minimum baseline of two inhabited planets per Galaxy, given the galaxy is at least as large as the Milky Way. So I repeat myself

posibility is the key word.

Originally Posted by Divine View Post
what

thats just my imagination going sci-fi mode.
Aadame:I'm very signaturable
It's just no one usues my shit .