#ISIL
I'll attempt to do the same sort of background information that Ele did on Ukraine.
Formed in 1999 by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi under the name Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, this militant Islamic group has been responsible for multiple terrorist attacks since 2003. 2004 saw ISIL pledge alliegiance to Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda and ISIL was renamed to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. In January of 2006, AQI merged with several smaller organizations, and the new umbrella organization was called Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC). In October of 2006, the MSC renamed itself to the Islamic State of Iraq.
2007 was what you would call a "bad year" for ISI/AQI. Uncoordinated and violent attacks severely damaged the group's image and subsequently lost outside support from the general populace. A large chunk of ISI/AQI militants left the group and worked to join US forces, resulting in many higher-ups in AQI being captured or killed. During 2008 and 2009, US and Iraqi forces drove out the AQI from strongholds, putting the group in an "extraordinary crisis".
In April of 2010, ISI's two top leaders, Abu Ayyub al-Masri and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, were killed in a joint raid near Tikrit. At this point, only eight of the previously 42 ISI leaders were still at large. In May, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed the new leader of ISI, filling leadership positions and returning to the previously captured strongholds from 2008-09.
In April of 2013, al-Baghdadi released a statement saying that the al-Nusra Front would be merging with ISI under the name of Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham. Al-Jawlani (Leader of al-Nusra) denied the merge and attempted to ease any tensions because of this ruling. After eight months of going back and forth about who was allowed to overrule whom, Al-Qaeda disavowed any relations with ISIL and the shenanigans that were happening. In November of 2013, the leader of a Russian-speaking faction of jihadists pledged alliegiance to al-Baghdadi and officially formed ISIL. After a bit of infighting and conflict with al-Nusra, the Syrian branch also joined ISIL.
In the most recent development, Afghan officials have confirmed that ISIL now have a presence in Afghanistan, and it has also been revealed that ISIL is in Yemen, and recruiting like crazy.
EDIT: One of the two Japanese hostages was beheaded by ISIL, due to Japan's failure to pay the $200M ransom. They have now said that they will release the second hostage in exchange for a leader being held in Jordan. Apparently they don't want the money anymore.
I'll attempt to do the same sort of background information that Ele did on Ukraine.
Formed in 1999 by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi under the name Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, this militant Islamic group has been responsible for multiple terrorist attacks since 2003. 2004 saw ISIL pledge alliegiance to Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda and ISIL was renamed to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. In January of 2006, AQI merged with several smaller organizations, and the new umbrella organization was called Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC). In October of 2006, the MSC renamed itself to the Islamic State of Iraq.
2007 was what you would call a "bad year" for ISI/AQI. Uncoordinated and violent attacks severely damaged the group's image and subsequently lost outside support from the general populace. A large chunk of ISI/AQI militants left the group and worked to join US forces, resulting in many higher-ups in AQI being captured or killed. During 2008 and 2009, US and Iraqi forces drove out the AQI from strongholds, putting the group in an "extraordinary crisis".
In April of 2010, ISI's two top leaders, Abu Ayyub al-Masri and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, were killed in a joint raid near Tikrit. At this point, only eight of the previously 42 ISI leaders were still at large. In May, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed the new leader of ISI, filling leadership positions and returning to the previously captured strongholds from 2008-09.
In April of 2013, al-Baghdadi released a statement saying that the al-Nusra Front would be merging with ISI under the name of Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham. Al-Jawlani (Leader of al-Nusra) denied the merge and attempted to ease any tensions because of this ruling. After eight months of going back and forth about who was allowed to overrule whom, Al-Qaeda disavowed any relations with ISIL and the shenanigans that were happening. In November of 2013, the leader of a Russian-speaking faction of jihadists pledged alliegiance to al-Baghdadi and officially formed ISIL. After a bit of infighting and conflict with al-Nusra, the Syrian branch also joined ISIL.
In the most recent development, Afghan officials have confirmed that ISIL now have a presence in Afghanistan, and it has also been revealed that ISIL is in Yemen, and recruiting like crazy.
EDIT: One of the two Japanese hostages was beheaded by ISIL, due to Japan's failure to pay the $200M ransom. They have now said that they will release the second hostage in exchange for a leader being held in Jordan. Apparently they don't want the money anymore.
Last edited by hawkesnightmare; Jan 24, 2015 at 06:15 PM.
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy. That’'s how far the world is from where I am. Just one bad day.
#ISIL
If we're thinking with realpolitik in mind, you can start to see the reason why they're doing these beheading videos. Beheadings speak to people viscerally. They compel action. ISIL is compelling a reaction from the West and one of the very basic rules of war is do not do what your enemey wants you to do. ISIL releases these videos because they want the West to get involved with them. They thrive and grow because of the conditions and effects of the West being involved the region. Us getting involved with ISIL just perpetuates the very conditions that predicate their survival.
Originally Posted by hawkesnightmare
EDIT: One of the two Japanese hostages was beheaded by ISIL, due to Japan's failure to pay the $200M ransom. They have now said that they will release the second hostage in exchange for a leader being held in Jordan. Apparently they don't want the money anymore.
If we're thinking with realpolitik in mind, you can start to see the reason why they're doing these beheading videos. Beheadings speak to people viscerally. They compel action. ISIL is compelling a reaction from the West and one of the very basic rules of war is do not do what your enemey wants you to do. ISIL releases these videos because they want the West to get involved with them. They thrive and grow because of the conditions and effects of the West being involved the region. Us getting involved with ISIL just perpetuates the very conditions that predicate their survival.
Last edited by Ele; Jan 25, 2015 at 07:38 AM.
#ISIL
@Ele
I don't think they have the political mastermind to think of such a long-term strategy (and a bad one at that), I'd say it's more of a way to make the international community take them seriously.
The prerequisite to extremism is indeed a collapsed society. The only way for extremism to persist is to restore order and improve living standards where more moderate approaches failed (see National Socialism or Fascism, and their early success stories). If they failed to restore order and living standards, a new force would rise to take their place (a counter-revolution, see Hungary and Horthy's White Revolution) because the population would see them as incompetent and would seek to oust them from power.
If ISIL wants to survive, they have to "win" their war and then win the peace. They have good odds to do the former since the international community chose an indirect approach regarding the whole situation.
@Ele
I don't think they have the political mastermind to think of such a long-term strategy (and a bad one at that), I'd say it's more of a way to make the international community take them seriously.
The prerequisite to extremism is indeed a collapsed society. The only way for extremism to persist is to restore order and improve living standards where more moderate approaches failed (see National Socialism or Fascism, and their early success stories). If they failed to restore order and living standards, a new force would rise to take their place (a counter-revolution, see Hungary and Horthy's White Revolution) because the population would see them as incompetent and would seek to oust them from power.
If ISIL wants to survive, they have to "win" their war and then win the peace. They have good odds to do the former since the international community chose an indirect approach regarding the whole situation.
#Yemen
The situation is Yemen is pretty dire, so I think it calls for discussion.
Yemen is on the road to becoming another failed state, like Iraq. It's currently in the middle of a civil war, the outcome of which will have big implications for the region.
Four days ago, both the second Prime Minister Yemen's had in 2 months and Hadi, the President of Yemen, resigned. A Shiite militant group seeking an independent state, the Houthis, surrounded and attacked the Presidential Palace and asserted their control in northern Yemen. Hadi accused the Houthis of having received support from Iran, and it's clear that Houthi supremacy in the region would increase Iran's sphere of influence. A lot of people also believe that the Houthis are also supported by the longtime former Zaidi president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
After the Yemeni executives resigned a bunch of southern cities declared they're after an independent south, resulting in big rallies in the cities. Counter rallies in Houthi territories ensued, and they erected banners with Iranian slogan, "Death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews and victory to Islam".
Yemen's on the brink of failing, and out of the rubble we may see two separate states, as Yemen used to be 40 years ago.
The situation is Yemen is pretty dire, so I think it calls for discussion.
Yemen is on the road to becoming another failed state, like Iraq. It's currently in the middle of a civil war, the outcome of which will have big implications for the region.
Four days ago, both the second Prime Minister Yemen's had in 2 months and Hadi, the President of Yemen, resigned. A Shiite militant group seeking an independent state, the Houthis, surrounded and attacked the Presidential Palace and asserted their control in northern Yemen. Hadi accused the Houthis of having received support from Iran, and it's clear that Houthi supremacy in the region would increase Iran's sphere of influence. A lot of people also believe that the Houthis are also supported by the longtime former Zaidi president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
After the Yemeni executives resigned a bunch of southern cities declared they're after an independent south, resulting in big rallies in the cities. Counter rallies in Houthi territories ensued, and they erected banners with Iranian slogan, "Death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews and victory to Islam".
Yemen's on the brink of failing, and out of the rubble we may see two separate states, as Yemen used to be 40 years ago.
Last edited by Ele; Jan 26, 2015 at 03:59 AM.
#ISIL
On my point earlier about beheadings compelling a reaction from the West, I've just found some commentary on Al-Jazeera that argues something similar.
From here.
These beheading videos makes ISIL unavoidable to Western leaders. They have to react to it, and when they react to it (like ynvaser said), it gives ISIL credibility.
On my point earlier about beheadings compelling a reaction from the West, I've just found some commentary on Al-Jazeera that argues something similar.
From here.
ISIL still uses beheadings, but for different aims. When the progenitor of ISIL conducted beheadings after the Iraq War, it was ostensibly to force foreign armies off Iraqi soil. By 2014, not only had all foreign armies left Iraq, but ISIL controlled a large swath of territory. Beheadings in 2014 of captured US and British hostages served as a means of a weak state, the "Islamic State", to retaliate against the US and UK air campaign against ISIL.
ISIL is aware that western media outlets will not show the actual video of the moment of beheading, nevertheless the act of beheading does generate a storm of debate in the media. The gruesome method of beheading, as opposed to the firing squads they used to kill a large number of captured Iraqi soldiers, allows ISIL to cause revulsion among political leaders.
With an act of a sword, they manage to force both Obama and Cameron to react. The two men, who control the world's most advanced militaries, find themselves at the mercy of the sword.
These beheading videos makes ISIL unavoidable to Western leaders. They have to react to it, and when they react to it (like ynvaser said), it gives ISIL credibility.
